US Forces Complete Iraq Withdrawal After Two Decades

United States forces are scheduled to complete their withdrawal from Iraq by Wednesday, marking the end of a two-decade military presence that began with the 2003 invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The departure, finalized under the Trump administration following an agreement reached in 2024, concludes a mission that saw approximately 4,500 American service members lose their lives. While the exit is broadly popular among Iraqis seeking full sovereignty, the move has triggered significant concerns regarding a potential security vacuum and the resurgence of regional adversaries.

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration, for Ministry of Oil (Iraq), Iraq's crude oil exports exceeded 3.2 to 3.4 million barrels per day in recent years, substantially higher than pre-2003 export volumes constrained under international sanctions.

According to U.S. Department of State, the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement remains the foundational legal framework guiding bilateral security cooperation, training, and defense sales between the U.S. and Iraq. According to Channel NewsAsia, operation Iraqi Freedom suffered roughly twice as many U.S. casualties as the war in Afghanistan, but concluded through structured bilateral planning rather than an abrupt military collapse.

According to PrimeXBT, for U.S. Central Command, The 2026 withdrawal finalized a phased drawdown that saw federal installations like Ain al-Asad vacated in January 2026 before ending operations at Harir Air Base in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance

For Tehran and its allied armed factions, the withdrawal is being framed as a strategic victory. Iranian officials have publicly welcomed the departure, describing it as a key step toward their goal of removing American military influence from the Middle East. Analysts note that the removal of US bases, which previously served as a counterweight to Iranian influence, provides Tehran with an opportunity to deepen its political and security footprint within Baghdad. Commanders of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed factions, have hailed the event as a historic defeat for the American project in the region.

Security Risks and Islamic State

Iraqi security officials and Kurdish commanders have expressed alarm that the loss of US intelligence, logistical support, and drone capabilities could empower Islamic State sleeper cells. Despite the territorial defeat of the group's caliphate nearly a decade ago, reports indicate that militants have been increasing their activity in anticipation of the coalition's exit. According to Atlantic Council, four Iraqi security and army officials confirmed that a suspected Islamic State cell was recently identified while preparing suicide attacks timed to coincide with the withdrawal, underscoring the fragility of the current security transition.

A Precarious Transition

Iraq now faces the challenge of managing its security independently while navigating intense internal competition among Shiite political factions and the ongoing regional war with Iran. Sunni tribal leaders, including those in the former resistance stronghold of Fallujah, have voiced fears that the country is not yet prepared to assume full responsibility for its security file. As US forces depart, the Iraqi government must balance its relationships with Washington and Tehran while preventing armed groups from exploiting the transition to further destabilize the nation.