Ethiopia Faces Renewed Conflict as Tigray Forces Seize Airports and Form Alliance

Fears of a devastating return to full-scale war escalated in northern Ethiopia after regional Tigrayan forces seized federally controlled airports and exchanged mutual blame with the federal government over new military offensives. The unfolding crisis threatens to shatter the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended a two-year civil war estimated by African Union mediators to have claimed some 600,000 lives and driven the region to the precipice of famine.

Getachew Reda, a cabinet minister and adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, stated that Tigrayan fighters had taken control of federally administered airports in Tigray and launched offensives in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. In a public statement shared on social media, Getachew said it was heartbreaking that the Tigray People's Liberation Front leadership launched an all-out offensive despite international efforts to avoid another round of bloodshed. Meanwhile, Tigrayan authorities maintained that their forces were compelled to enter a defensive war following a series of recent drone strikes, including a Tuesday strike in the southern town of Alamata that local officials reported killed at least 14 people and injured 22 others.

The military flare-up follows a political alignment announced on Sunday, wherein the TPLF, which governs Tigray, joined forces with six other armed groups across Ethiopia under a shared objective of removing the federal government in Addis Ababa. The peace process had already grown increasingly fragile over recent months as both sides accused each other of violating the Pretoria Agreement. Tensions further compounded when the TPLF restored its pre-war administration ahead of the May general election, disbanding an interim administration previously appointed by Prime Minister Abiy and prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flight operations into Tigray following the airport seizures.

According to the public statement, seven member organizations established the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. Meanwhile, the TPLF leadership criticized Olusegun Obasanjo's handling of the peace process, stating that his mediation efforts lacked impartiality.

International condemnation and appeals for restraint intensified as the confrontation widened. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, called for an immediate de-escalation and a resumption of peace talks. Simultaneously, the United States ambassador to Ethiopia condemned the TPLF for launching a large-scale offensive, characterizing it as an unwinnable fight. Separately, the US State Department's Bureau of African Affairs denounced a separate drone strike that struck a convoy of Catholic vehicles carrying food aid, demanding a transparent investigation.

Diplomatic observers warn that renewed hostilities in Tigray will not remain contained within Ethiopia, instead colliding with wider instability across the Horn of Africa. The region is currently grappling with the civil war in Sudan, ongoing instability in Somalia, and persistent disputes surrounding Nile water infrastructure, notably Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which remains a core point of contention with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan. Allegations that Addis Ababa has provided backing to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group have further complicated diplomatic alignments, drawing reactions from regional powers.

Additional friction stems from relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, whose forces previously supported the federal army during the initial 2020 conflict. While Eritrea was not a party to the Pretoria Agreement, geopolitical tensions have mounted over landlocked Ethiopia's stated security and economic need for direct access to Red Sea ports such as Assab. Analysts note these compounding flashpoints heighten the risk of a multi-front destabilisation across the Horn of Africa as international actors monitor the deteriorating security architecture.