The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised for a potential breakthrough in the upcoming state election in Saxony-Anhalt, with recent polling indicating the party could secure 40% or more of the vote. This surge threatens to shatter a long-standing taboo in Germany’s postwar political landscape, as the party stands on the precipice of potentially leading a state government for the first time since 1945. The election represents a critical test for the country’s established political order, which has historically ostracized the far-right movement.
As the vote approaches, the AfD has increasingly utilized campaign tactics that mirror the rhetoric of the American MAGA movement. Party leaders have publicly cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral process, specifically targeting absentee and postal voting without providing evidence of systemic fraud. This strategy, which includes unsubstantiated claims regarding the manipulation of ballots in nursing homes, has drawn sharp rebukes from election officials and caregiver organizations who maintain that the voting process remains secure and transparent.
Borrowing from the American Playbook
The AfD’s adoption of election-integrity skepticism reflects a broader trend among European right-wing populist parties. While German politicians across the mainstream spectrum are careful not to invoke President Trump by name—largely due to his deep unpopularity with the German electorate—the influence of his campaign style is evident. Political scientists note that sowing distrust in democratic institutions is a calculated strategy designed to foster a shared identity among supporters and delegitimize political opponents.
Lars Rensmann, a political scientist at the University of Passau, observed that the MAGA movement has served as an inspiration for European radical right parties. "Trumpism and the MAGA movement have undoubtedly been an inspiration and model for many European radical right parties," Rensmann stated. He added that while these parties adapt their messaging to local conditions, they share a common goal of dismantling liberal and civil norms by pushing boundaries that were previously considered unacceptable for public office.
The Strategy of Disruption
The AfD’s rise is rooted in a decade of political evolution, transitioning from a small anti-euro party in 2013 to a potent anti-migrant force. The party has effectively tapped into voter frustration regarding immigration, housing shortages, and the perceived strain on public services. By framing themselves as the only true alternative to the establishment, the AfD has maintained its status as a disruptive force despite being largely excluded from coalition building by mainstream parties.
In their current campaign, the party is leaning heavily into nostalgia, utilizing East German symbols such as Simson mopeds and retro aesthetics to appeal to voters who feel left behind by the post-reunification era. This focus on a "Germany of old" is paired with a drumbeat of attacks on mainstream media and migration policies. Marcel Lewandowsky, a political scientist at Martin Luther University in Halle, noted that the "rigged election" narrative is a crucial element that fosters a sense of shared identity among the party's base, mirroring the tactics used by rightist politicians in other regions, including Latin America.
Diverging National Interests
Despite the shared tactical inspiration, experts caution against assuming the existence of a unified, international far-right network. Giovanni Orsina, head of the political science department at LUISS University in Rome, emphasized that the nationalist nature of these parties inherently limits their ability to form a cohesive global alliance. Because these movements prioritize their own national interests above all else, their goals often diverge, making a formal, coordinated international network difficult to sustain.
Orsina also highlighted the unique context of the German election compared to other European shifts, such as the 2022 victory of Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. While fears of a neo-fascist resurgence in Italy were largely tempered by the reality of governance, the stakes in Germany are viewed differently due to the country’s historical relationship with its Nazi past. The potential for the AfD to lead a state government is seen as a watershed moment that could provide a springboard for the party to exert greater influence at the national level, where it currently leads federal polling with approximately 29% support.
Future Implications and Unresolved Questions
The outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt election will likely serve as a bellwether for the future of German politics. If the AfD secures an absolute majority or successfully forms a coalition, it will force a confrontation with the postwar consensus that has kept the far-right from power. The party’s ability to maintain its momentum will depend on whether its narrative of institutional distrust continues to resonate with voters who feel alienated by the current establishment.
As the election date nears, the focus remains on whether the AfD’s aggressive campaign tactics will translate into a governing mandate. The broader question for Europe is whether this shift represents a temporary surge in populist sentiment or a fundamental realignment of the German political landscape. With the party leading national polls, the implications of a state-level victory extend far beyond the borders of Saxony-Anhalt, potentially reshaping the national discourse for years to come.
