The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured a historic electoral breakthrough in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, winning 43.8% of the vote and capturing 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. The result, which saw Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) slump to just 17.2%, leaves the far-right party just short of an absolute majority. If mainstream parties fail to construct a highly complex multi-party coalition, the AfD could form its first minority regional government in Germany since the fall of the Nazi regime in 1945.
While Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany's smaller states with roughly 1.7 million voters, the scale of the AfD's victory has sent shockwaves through Berlin and reverberated across Europe. The triumph highlights a broader, highly fragmented shift in the continent's political landscape, where nationalist and anti-immigration parties are rapidly gaining ground. However, the victory has also exposed deep ideological divisions and strategic distancing among Europe’s prominent right-wing movements as they eye national power.
The Saxony-Anhalt Breakthrough and the Crumbling German Firewall
The Saxony-Anhalt election was led by Ulrich Siegmund, a 35-year-old businessman who has cultivated a softer public image despite advocating the party's hardline policies. The AfD's platform includes demands for "remigration" and mass deportations, a ban on rainbow flags in schools, strict limits on dual citizenship, and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. The party's leadership reflects a complex internal coalition, ranging from Alice Weidel, an economist whose partner is a Sri Lankan-born film producer, to Björn Höcke, a controversial former history teacher convicted of using a banned Nazi slogan.
For years, mainstream German parties have maintained a "Brandmauer"—a political firewall or gentleman's agreement refusing any coalition or formal cooperation with the AfD. However, with the AfD capturing nearly half the seats in Saxony-Anhalt and polling at up to 30% nationally, this defensive barrier is facing unprecedented strain. Tabea Schaumann, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, noted that even if the AfD only tolerates or supports a minority government from the outside, it will still indirectly shape the state's influential position in the Bundesrat, Germany's upper house of parliament.
The Guarded Silence of France’s National Rally
Despite the historic nature of the German election, prominent far-right leaders across Europe have maintained a conspicuous, guarded silence. In France, National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen and party president Jordan Bardella did not issue any congratulatory statements. This silence is a calculated element of Le Pen's long-term "de-demonisation" strategy, aimed at making her party respectable to mainstream voters ahead of the April 2027 French presidential election, where current polls position her as the front-runner to succeed Emmanuel Macron.
The RN formally severed ties with the AfD in the European Parliament in 2024, following controversial remarks by a senior German politician regarding the SS and reports of a clandestine AfD plan for mass expulsions. RN lawmaker Franck Allisio explicitly distanced his party from the German victors, stating, "We have nothing to do with them," and adding that the AfD confuses "brutality with firmness." Fellow RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy remarked that the AfD had taken positions "against the interests of France," highlighting the deep nationalist rivalries that prevent a unified European far-right front.
Reform UK and the British Populist Shift
A similar silence was observed in the United Kingdom, where Reform UK leader Nigel Farage refrained from commenting on the German results. Reform UK has emerged as a powerful force in British politics, dominating debates on immigration and running second only to the ruling Labour Party in recent YouGov polls. The party's rapid rise in local elections earlier this year contributed to a leadership transition within the Labour government, where Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
Despite holding only eight of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, Reform UK has successfully capitalized on post-Brexit discontent, particularly in regions that voted to leave the European Union in 2016. However, the party's momentum has faced recent hurdles, including losses in several special elections and scrutiny over its funding. Unlike its continental counterparts, Reform UK’s platform is rooted in Thatcherite tax-cutting, deregulation, and Euroscepticism, avoiding the explicit language of historical destiny and ethnic nationalism often associated with the German radical right.
Meloni’s Moderation and the Southern European Dynamic
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also kept silent on the AfD's triumph. Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party has historical roots in post-war neo-fascist movements, has successfully transitioned into a conventional Atlanticist leader since taking office. By supporting NATO, backing Ukraine, and working within the European Union consensus, Meloni has established the most stable Italian government in decades. However, this moderate turn has opened her up to challenges from her right, where a new populist party led by a retired general is seeking to capture disgruntled voters.
in Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez used the German election results to issue a stark warning to the European left, declaring that the AfD victory is "a warning that the far-right threat is gaining ground." Spain's own right-wing Vox party, which holds 32 seats in parliament, is poised to make significant gains amid public anger over the Ceuta border crisis. Vox has already entered regional governing coalitions with the center-right Popular Party, demonstrating how mainstream conservative factions across Europe are increasingly willing to partner with populists to secure power.
The Ideological Fissures of Europe’s New Right
The reluctance of Europe's various right-wing parties to form a cohesive alliance stems from fundamental ideological contradictions. While mainstream media frequently groups these parties under a single "far-right" label, their economic and social policies vary wildly. Geert Wilders in the Netherlands defends LGBT and women's rights as a tool to oppose political Islam, whereas Hungary's Viktor Orbán champions an illiberal "Christian civilization." Economically, Le Pen advocates for welfare protectionism and a strong state, contrasting sharply with Farage's free-market, small-state philosophy.
Political scientists, such as Cas Mudde, distinguish between the "radical right," which operates within democratic structures while rejecting liberal pluralism, and the "extreme right," which rejects democracy entirely. The AfD's rise represents a highly successful mobilization of what Mudde terms the "populist radical right"—combining nativism, authoritarianism, and anti-establishment populism. By learning to speak the language of classical liberalism to defend national identity, these parties have successfully exploited the structural vulnerabilities of modern liberal democracies.
Coalition Deadlocks and Upcoming Electoral Milestones
The immediate political battleground now shifts to the coalition negotiations in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU face the daunting task of attempting to stitch together an alliance with the SPD and smaller liberal parties to uphold the "Brandmauer." If these negotiations collapse, the AfD's path to forming a historic minority government will become a reality.
Beyond Germany, the durability of Europe's populist surge will face its ultimate tests in the upcoming national elections in Spain and the pivotal April 2027 presidential election in France. These contests will determine whether the current wave of voter discontent represents a permanent realignment of European politics or a temporary electoral backlash against incumbent administrations.
