Crude oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude trading at $102.58 a barrel, as markets reacted to mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East and ongoing fuel export restrictions from China. Prices have sustained a three-session upward trend, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions and the prospect of intensified military activity in the region.
For commodity market updates on MCX, the October contract expiration on 5 October typically redirects trading volumes toward the December contract, according to Univest data.
Market sentiment is being heavily influenced by reports of increased US military presence in the Middle East. According to reports citing the Wall Street Journal, the United States is deploying a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 additional troops to the region. These developments follow President Donald Trump's consideration of resuming strikes on Iran, raising fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt critical energy supply routes. While crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels, analysts warn that this recovery remains fragile without a lasting diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
Global fuel supplies are further constrained by China's management of liquid-fuel exports. Beijing has maintained strict control over diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel shipments, with no major export approvals granted for October beyond regional trade with Hong Kong and Macau. This supply management, combined with persistent refinery bottlenecks, has contributed to record diesel pump prices in Europe and elevated costs in the United States. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted that approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Persian Gulf remains unavailable due to conflict-related damage and shipping disruptions.
PetroChina reportedly withdrew several October gasoline and jet-fuel cargoes as Beijing sought to preserve domestic inventories.
According to Source, for IEA, Refined product and LPG exports remained nearly 60%, or 3.7 mb/d, less than in February. According to Source, for Diesel/gasoil, US diesel prices surpassed $200/bbl in early September.
Indian commodity traders are currently on the sidelines as the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is closed for Gandhi Jayanti. Trading is scheduled to resume on Monday, October 5. The closure comes as domestic equity benchmarks, including the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, extended their losing streaks on Thursday, pressured by rising global bond yields and the broader macroeconomic outlook. The Nifty Auto index recorded the sharpest decline among sectoral indices, falling more than 3%, while market breadth remained decisively negative with over 2,500 stocks closing lower on the National Stock Exchange.
