El Niño Expected to Persist Through February 2027, Threatening India’s Monsoon and Crop Yields

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an urgent warning that El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific are firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event. Projections indicate a near 100% likelihood that these conditions will persist through February 2027, marking a significant climate challenge for India. The phenomenon, characterized by rising sea surface temperatures, is already contributing to erratic rainfall and extreme heat across the country, with the WMO noting that this is the first time its forecast has been so unequivocal in its duration.

This development follows a difficult August for India, which recorded a 16% rainfall deficit and experienced its hottest August since 1901. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that these conditions are directly linked to the strengthening El Niño, which typically suppresses monsoon rainfall. With September rainfall forecast to remain below 91% of the long-period average, the cumulative impact threatens to make this the weakest monsoon season in nearly two decades, raising immediate concerns for the nation's agricultural stability and food security.

The WMO’s latest update highlights that sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have strengthened markedly, with anomalies reaching 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average between late July and mid-August. Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of climate prediction services at the WMO, noted that peak temperatures could potentially reach 3.6°C above average. This unprecedented warming is not limited to the surface; subsurface temperatures in some regions have been recorded at 8°C above normal, providing a robust mechanism for the continued intensification of the event.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the severity of the situation, stating, “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo added, “El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”

The erratic monsoon has already disrupted the planting of summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybean, corn, and rice, which faced a 35% rainfall deficit in June. These crops are now entering critical growth stages, including pod formation and grain filling, where moisture stress could lead to significant yield losses. The persistent lack of rainfall in September further threatens to deplete soil moisture, which is essential for the upcoming winter planting season.

Farmers preparing for the rabi season—which includes wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas—face a precarious outlook. Insufficient soil moisture at the time of sowing can hamper seed germination and early growth. Climate Trends, a Delhi-based think tank, has observed that northern India is already experiencing shorter winters and warming trends in February and March. These shifts, exacerbated by the current El Niño, increase the risk of terminal heat stress on wheat crops during their reproductive stages, potentially curbing production in major growing regions.

India’s agricultural trade policy is bracing for the potential fallout of a sustained rainfall deficit. Water-intensive crops like sugarcane are already showing signs of stress, which may reduce output and force the government to increase duty-free imports of raw sugar. Similarly, reduced yields for soybeans and peanuts could necessitate higher imports of vegetable oils from global suppliers, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Russia.

While India maintains large rice stocks that provide a buffer against immediate export disruptions, the production of pulses—largely grown in rain-fed areas—remains vulnerable. A decline in domestic pulse production could lead to increased reliance on imports from countries like Myanmar, Australia, and Canada. Cotton production is also under scrutiny, with the possibility that New Delhi may allow limited duty-free imports to bridge domestic supply gaps if yields fail to meet expectations.

The monsoon’s performance is a critical variable for India’s inflation outlook, as food items constitute more than a third of the consumer-price basket. After two years of above-average rainfall that helped contain food prices, a weaker monsoon poses a fresh risk to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy trajectory. Retail inflation in July stood at 4.45%, with food inflation at 5.52%, and any significant crop losses could reverse recent gains in price stability.

Beyond the immediate agricultural impact, the combination of weaker growth and higher inflation could complicate the RBI’s interest rate decisions. Analysts suggest that such a scenario might deter foreign investment and place additional pressure on the rupee. While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to enter a positive phase, which could potentially counteract some of the negative effects of El Niño, the overall outlook remains dominated by the intensity of the Pacific warming event.

In response to the forecast, the WMO has launched a major mobilization effort with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to enhance early-warning systems. The focus is on providing climate intelligence to sectors sensitive to weather, including agriculture, health, energy, and water resources. As India moves toward the end of the monsoon season, the government and agricultural agencies are expected to monitor soil moisture levels and crop health closely.

Unresolved questions remain regarding the exact magnitude of the El Niño peak and the extent to which other climate drivers, such as the IOD and Atlantic conditions, will mitigate or exacerbate the impacts. The coming months will be critical for determining the final impact on India’s food supply and the broader economic stability of the nation as it navigates this exceptional climate event.