Nifty Poised for Weak Open as Geopolitical Tensions Drive Crude Oil Higher

Indian equities are set for a subdued opening on Thursday, July 23, 2026, as Gift Nifty signals a negative start with a decline of approximately 60 to 100 points. This cautious outlook follows three consecutive sessions of losses for domestic benchmarks, with the Nifty 50 slipping below the 24,000 psychological threshold on Wednesday. Investors are bracing for volatility as the India VIX surged approximately 5% to 5.63% to settle between 13.29 and 13.31.

The primary catalyst for the current risk-off sentiment is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has pushed Brent crude prices to trade between $95 and $96 per barrel. The US military's ongoing operations in Iran and threats to Red Sea shipping lanes have heightened fears of global supply disruptions. While US markets closed lower overnight, Asian markets remain mixed, with chip stocks finding support from AI infrastructure spending expectations.

The rising crude oil prices are expected to exert significant pressure on Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) at the opening bell. Conversely, the positive momentum in Asian chip stocks may provide a slight cushion for domestic IT exporters. Market participants will closely monitor the Nifty 50's ability to reclaim the 24,000 level, with the session likely to be dominated by the impact of crude oil volatility on the Indian rupee.